Archive for the ‘Why Reform is Going Badly’ Category

Never Get Involved in a Land War in Asia

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

By Evan Falchuk

Warren Buffet is talking and reform opponents love what the unofficial Obama adviser has to say.  He says the President should scrap the whole thing and start over.

He says health care costs are a “tape worm” eating at American competitiveness.  His prescription: a “united effort,” a “national emergency” that will allow us, finally, to focus on “costs costs costs” above all else.

Buffet is a brilliant man, and he makes a very good point about how botched the sales job on reform has been.  But he’s missing something very important:

We have been focused on health care costs in America.  For decades.

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Price Controls, Again?

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

By Evan Falchuk

Barely a week after Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick said he wants state controls on the price of health insurance, President Obama apparently wants to do the same at the federal level.  Both men must believe it’s good politics, because there are about 4,000 years of evidence that it’s not good policy.

But the trouble for reformers has never really been about policy.  It’s been about a fundamental misunderstanding of how people view health care and the very bad things that happen when you give people the impression you’re going to mess with what they have.

In this sense, the reform bills are like perpetual anxiety machines.  Contraptions that continually produce more public anxiety than they consume.

But why is this?

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US Employers: Not Crazy to Pay for Health Care

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

By Evan Falchuk

“I’m from Massachusetts,” I told the audience.  “So depending on how you feel about reform, I will say either ’sorry,’ or ‘you’re welcome.”

The audience, made up of large employers and benefits professionals seemed to like this.  But it was clear that they were pleased that the health care reform legislation is Congress is pretty well dead now.

Now, if it’s true that health care costs are rising (they are) and this heavily impacts employers (it does) why would the death of a bill meant to address this problem make those people happy?

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There is no Voom

Saturday, January 16th, 2010

By Evan Falchuk

Did you ever read The Cat in the Hat Comes Back?

It’s the sequel to The Cat in The Hat and it’s better than the original.  Kind of like how Empire Strikes Back is better than Star Wars.

In the Cat in the Hat Comes Back, the Cat returns to the scene of his first adventure, and accidentally creates what seems to be a manageable problem – a ring of pink goo in the bathtub.  He tells the children he can clean it up.  But every solution he tries creates a new problem.  Great pink spots of goo keep getting spread all over the place.

The cat brings in more cats to help clean up the spots.  These cats – 25 in all, bring increasingly intricate solutions.  But they only spread the spots around more and more, making the problem much bigger, and much worse.

The spots finally get cleaned up, but only when one final cat – so small that you can’t see him – uses a magical power called “VOOM.”  Unleashing VOOM suddenly puts everything back exactly as it was supposed to be.

Dr. Seuss understood people.  When faced with a problem, people tend to want to do something.  But when this happens, people often seriously undervalue the unintended consequences of whatever it is they’re trying.

It happens in business all the time.  You face a problem and decide some new software will fix it.  You rush to build it.  Then, along the way somewhere, maybe millions of dollars later, you realize the software isn’t helping.  In fact, it’s created a whole host of new issues.  You realize, too late, that your real problem had to do with the way your business was organized in the first place.

Politicians are very susceptible to this, especially when dealing with big, important issues.  Who among them wouldn’t want to champion some giant, historic solution to a giant, historic problem?

So, here are three ways the what’s gone on in health reform in Washington DC is the return of the Cat in the Hat – but without the Voom.

1.  “To take spots off THIS bed will be hard,” said the cat.  “I can’t do it alone,” said the Cat in the Hat.

The reform bills have never been based on a vision of changing American health care into some new, coherently different state.  Instead, they are a collection of big and small deals meant to satisfy the needs of one or another Congressman or constituency.    The most recent of these – the deal to exempt union plans from the “Cadillac” tax underscores the point.  Rising health care costs are the most important fiscal issue we face as a country – well, unless those costs are covered by a union benefit plan.

I don’t know that the Cadillac tax was ever a good idea.  But if you’re going to have it, shouldn’t it apply to everyone equally?  If the reason to have it is to get rid of high-cost insurance plans, how does exempting a huge portion of the high cost marketplace further that goal?  It doesn’t, of course.

2. Oh the things that they did! And they did them so hard.  It was all one big spot now all over the yard!

One of the major reasons why health insurance is so expensive is how it’s regulated.  Today, 50 state agencies dictate what companies can sell in their states, what they have to cover, the terms on which they must accept business, and many other important activities.  It adds a significant amount of cost to all policies.  Worse, it makes the market for health insurance deeply uncompetitive and stagnant.  In short, it’s a terrible deal for consumers, and a great one for insurance companies.   The bills in Congress address this issue….by replicating a federal version of this state system.

Now, instead of dealing with 50 regulators, insurers can work closely with just one regulator, if you know what I mean.  This isn’t progress.  It is a failure of imagination.

3.  “Why, Voom cleans up anything clean as can be!”

As a plot device, using Voom is a sort of cheap way to end the chaos unleashed by the Cat in the Hat in a page or so.  But that was the point.  There’s no such thing as “Voom,” even though we all wish there were.  The lesson is this- cleaning up messes is hard, so be careful not to make them in the first place.  Don’t act without thinking.  Realize that once you have a mess, the only way to fix it is not through dramatic short-cuts, but through the hard, daily work of chipping away, one bit at a time.

“And so, if you ever have spots, now and then, I will be very happy to come here again.”

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Warning: Graphic Politics

Friday, December 25th, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

A friend sent me this interesting graph from the blog of the National Geographic.

You’ll have to click on it to see a bigger version.  It captures a lot of data very elegantly on a single graph–  Professor Tufte would love it.

What it shows is health care spending per person across a group of countries, along with life expectancies, average number of doctor visits per year, and whether a country has a system of universal health coverage.  Although putting all of this data on one graph is novel, the graph makes what by now is one of the oldest political arguments for reform – for all the money they United States spends on health care we don’t get a good deal.

So why blog about this graph?

(more…)

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Professor: Americans are Unkind

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

Ancient people couldn’t understand why solar eclipses happened, so they looked for explanations that fit what they saw:

A recurring and pervasive embodiment of the eclipse was a dragon, or a demon, who devours the sun. The ancient Chinese would produce great noise and commotion during an eclipse, banging on pots and drums to frighten away the dragon.

They weren’t crazy, although if we accept their explanation, their solutions seem pretty illogical.  I mean, would a dragon big and powerful enough to eat the sun really be scared away by people banging on pots and drums?

I guess I don’t understand the skittishness of giant sun-devouring dragons.

But this the trouble.  When you come at a problem with a faulty premise — and insist on keeping that premise — it leads you down some very strange paths.

Such is the case in a recent blog post by Professor Uwe Reinhardt of  Princeton University.  He wonders if the opposition to health care reform bills (now at 61% according to CNN) is because Americans just aren’t very kind people.

The theory here is that in all modern nations, the better-off members of society would like to provide kind acts for the less well-off. The kind acts in question include financing health care for the less fortunate who cannot pay for that care with their own resources. . . . [but] thanks to the expensive and often wasteful manner in which our country’s health care providers and insurers have managed their affairs, they have helped to price kindness out of America’s soul.

This lack of kindness, according to Reinhardt, can be seen in opposition to parts of the reform bill like subsidies for people who can’t afford insurance, making insurance mandatory, and outlawing insurance company practices that allow them to charge different amounts of premium to sick versus healthy people.

Now, one can argue (kindly) that rules like these have helped make health insurance so expensive in the first place.

Or one could be more cruel and point to Massachusetts.  Massachusetts has perhaps the highest health care costs in America, and yet somehow escaped Reinhardt’s theoretical descent into unkindness.  In 2006, that state, under a Republican governor no less, passed reforms that did the very things he says Americans oppose out of a lack of kindness.

It’s almost as if the sun came back without anyone banging a single pot or drum.  How could this happen?

Here’s how: Reinhardt’s premise is wrong.  Americans are kind and generous. They make more private charitable donations than any people on Earth, including Europeans, whether measured in raw dollars are as a percentage of GDP.

What is different about Americans is that – fairly or unfairly – they don’t trust the government to be very good at dealing with most problems (“Hi, I’m from the government and I’m here to help” is a joke, not a relief).  Americans are suspicious of anyone selling something who is in a rush to get you to buy it.  Indeed, American popular culture is loaded with cautionary tales of people being taken advantage of in just this way.

Now, put aside the specific policy proposals and look at how reform is being sold to Americans.

It needs to be done now. The only way to do it is through massive and not well understood legislation.  It will cost a trillion dollars, but it will save money.  You won’t be affected by it unless you want to.  Well, except that your care is going to get better and cheaper.  And don’t raise questions about it.  Your questions are motivated by politics or financial self-interest or much worse.  In its own way, you could say this approach is brilliant in how it has touched on so many negative associations.

So, no, Professor Reinhardt, Americans are plenty kind.  The reason reform is going badly isn’t because Americans don’t want to take care of those in need.  It’s because reformers have failed to convince them that this is the way to do it.

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Oh Good, a Thoughtful Debate on Healthcare, Ctd

Monday, December 7th, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

That thoughtful debate on health care continues.

Today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had this to say on the floor of the U.S. Senate:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid . . .compar[ed] Republicans who oppose health care reform to lawmakers who clung to the institution of slavery more than a century ago. . . “Instead of joining us on the right side of history, all the Republicans can come up with is, ’slow down, stop everything, let’s start over.’ If you think you’ve heard these same excuses before, you’re right,” Reid said. “When this country belatedly recognized the wrongs of slavery, there were those who dug in their heels and said ’slow down, it’s too early, things aren’t bad enough.’”

He continued: “When women spoke up for the right to speak up, they wanted to vote, some insisted they simply, slow down, there will be a better day to do that, today isn’t quite right.

“When this body was on the verge of guaranteeing equal civil rights to everyone regardless of the color of their skin, some senators resorted to the same filibuster threats that we hear today.”

Seriously, Senator? Slavery? Suffrage? Civil rights?

Reid must know that there are valid reasons to question the legislation in the Senate and House. And he certainly knows that there are politics in the Senate. But shouldn’t we expect the Senate Majority Leader to be experienced enough at this game to handle it without resorting to such bizarre comparisons? (UPDATE 7:16am 12/9/09: Harry Reid confirms that he meant what he said).

So in the spirit of rational discussion, let me offer a reasonable rebuttal to a reasonable critique of the legislation in Congress.

Many reform opponents deride the bills in Congress as a “government takeover” of health care. Today, for example, Philip Klein of the American Spectator said that as Governor, Mitt Romney engineered the “state takover” of the Massachusetts health care system. Klein says the Senate bill represents a similar “takeover” at the federal level. What’s more, according to Klein, the Massachusetts experiment has worked out so badly that “the only people left defending the Massachusetts health care reform are liberals who want to see Obamacare passed … and Mitt Romney.”

It’s a curious comment.

The Massachusetts reforms of 2006 were dramatic, but fairly simple. The state made it mandatory, with some exceptions, for individuals to own health insurance, and for businesses to provide it. There was no government takeover of anything – the government didn’t even focus on a “public option.” Instead, it set up programs to make it easier for people without insurance to find affordable private insurance options, or to help them get on existing government programs for which they were eligible.

Some aspects of the program has been a great success.

Less than 3% of people in Massachusetts are uninsured. Doctors overwhelmingly support it. In fact, many worry that the current national reform efforts will undermine what has been accomplished in Massachusetts.

On the other hand, the public at large is skeptical.

Only 26% of Massachusetts voters think the program has been a success. Thirty seven percent think it’s been a failure, and another 37% aren’t sure. It’s probably because Massachusetts has some of the highest health insurance costs in the country. Not coincidentally, it also has one of the most concentrated insurance markets in the country, too. Meanwhile, the increase in costs to the state budget because of an underestimate of the cost of subsidies and other expenses is hitting hard in this difficult recession. It’s not a recipe for good polling.

Still, if the reforms solved the problem of the uninsured without having the government take over the health care system, why isn’t that a success? Yes, the cost problem hasn’t gone away. But isn’t this a lesson we should all learn? Cost is not caused by a lack of coverage.

And this is the larger point.

Does anyone debating health care really know what they are talking about, or is this all politics?

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What We Can Learn from the Swiss

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

Blogging from Switzerland this morning.

American news reports and blogs in the last few weeks have talked about how the Swiss health care system can be a model for our own.  The Swiss system includes many components of what is being debated in Washington.  For example, there are no exclusions for pre-existing conditions, an individual mandate, and, according to the New York Times, a cost per person far less than that of the United States.  It also doesn’t have a “public option.”

So is it a model for reform in the United States?

For starters, you can’t simply transplant the health care system of one country into another one.  Each country’s system has developed in the unique circumstances of that country’s political and medical culture.

For example, the Swiss have no Medicare-type system for the elderly, who must buy insurance like everyone else.  According to some experts, they also have a very different set of expectations of what they want from their health care system.  Americans, it seems, are far more demanding, and have a much higher expectation that death can be staved off or avoided if only appropriate care can be delivered.  And these are just a few of the more important differences.

It’s not really the point, though.  No one in Washington is talking about importing Switzerland into the United States.

There is much that can be learned from the experience of health care and health insurance in other countries.  The trouble is, the reform debate in the United States has revolved around a series of political maneuvers designed to get a particular bill or another passed, or not.  The substance of reform, buried in the thousands of pages of legislation produced by the House and Senate has become secondary.  And, as far as anyone can tell, what’s in these bills an enormous collection of changes to our health care and health insurance system that may or may not fit together, that may or may not address the issues they are meant to address, and may or may not be what Americans – or even their representatives – mean them to be.

But whatever the legislation will be, one thing is clear.  Our representatives in Washington, of both political parties, have spent more time behind closed doors or on TV jockeying for political position than they have learning about the experience of health care systems outside of the United States.

So, yes, there is a lot we can learn from the health care systems of other countries.  But the truth is that one of the uniquely American aspects of the U.S. system today, and the one we will have tomorrow, is we like to try to do things our own way.  It’s a recipe for creating a new system that’s just as strange and confused as the old one.

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The Divide, Continued

Friday, November 13th, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

The strangely out-of-touch comments by proponents of reform legislation continue.

Yesterday, Christina Romer, the head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers was asked about the proposed excise tax on so-called “Cadillac” health plans.  Romer said:

Part of the idea of how that is going to work is precisely because it does empower consumers. It empowers each of us to have an employer-sponsored plan to call our HR office and say, ‘Would you negotiate harder? Would you think about (whether this) is the most efficient plan out there, because I don’t want my plan paying an excise tax.’ So I think that’s something that is very much empowering consumers.

It’s a bizarre statement.  Roemer has impressive academic credentials, but this kind of statement betrays a profound ignorance of how employers actually buy health benefits.  She’s not the only one with such strange beliefs.

So, let me make it simple.

Companies across America use skilled and experienced benefits professionals to design and implement their health plans.  The bigger the employer the better they are at this.  In fact, big employers are such smart negotiators that they manage to get the services of the insurance companies without paying them a dime for health insurance.  It’s true: they just use the insurance companies to mechanically pay for the cost of their employees’ care, which comes out of the pocket of the employer.

Now, the smaller an employer is, the more difficult it is.  If you’re a company with 20 employees, your problem isn’t whether you are any good at negotiating.  It’s that you probably live in a state where one or two insurance companies dominate the market.  Your choices are limited, and because you’re too small to self-insure, you need to buy insurance from one of them.

But it’s worse than that.  State laws make it so that even if you were to try to “negotiate harder” (whatever that means), there isn’t much the insurance company is allowed to do.

So what is Professor Romer talking about?  Frankly, I have no idea.  So many reform proponents in Washington have never run a business or designed a benefit plan, so I’m becoming less and less surprised when they come to strange conclusions about these things.  But what doesn’t help is that they seem to prefer to spend so much time behind closed doors in Washington, or on TV, and so little time out talking to people actually in this business to see what works and what doesn’t.

This is hubris.  And it bodes very ill for the likelihood that plans coming out of Washington are going to make things better and not worse.

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The Divide

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

By Evan Falchuk

Health care reformers say they want to improve the quality and affordability of health care.

It sounds good.  But it’s not like there’s no one out there trying to do that.  Employers of all sizes have been working on this problem for a long time, and they’ve come up with a great many interesting successes and failures.

So what’s the problem?

Well, it seems like reformers in Congress are completely uninterested in these things.

Yesterday I had the opportunity to speak to and in front of two very prominent groups.  Without saying who they were, I will say that one is doing some very interesting work with smaller employers, the other focuses solely on very large employers.  Both are at the leading edge of successful efforts to improve health care quality and cost.  Neither has been asked by Congress to share with them what they are doing.

There is, in short, an enormous divide between what reformers in Congress are trying to do and what people who are in the business of health care understand about the reality of this kind of work.

Let me give you two examples.

One group has banded together hundreds of smaller employers – representing tens of thousands of employees – to try to control rising health care costs.   Unlike large employers, small employers can’t self-insure for health care risk, so they have to buy insurance from an insurance company.

You would think that this group could go to the insurance companies and negotiate some kind of a group rate for their members, right?  Well, they can’t – it’s illegal.  The state in which these employers are located has mandated the rates that insurers must charge small employers.  They can’t give a price break, or have the flexibility to create something that would suit these employers.

The only escape for these small employers would be to pool their insurance risk so they could self-insure like the big employers.  But this is a very complicated exercise.  And why should they have to go through this trouble, when all they really want is to negotiate rates with the insurance companies?  It makes little sense.  But you know what’s worse?  As reform moves along in Congress, this kind of thing may become federal law.

Who benefits from this?

Well, on one level the health insurance companies do.  They don’t really need to compete for business, they just charge what the government tells them and collect the money.  It will be the same if a government-run insurer shows up to compete, they will just get to do the same thing.  It’s almost as easy as collecting taxes.

But there’s more to it than this.  It turns out that many insurers in that state are working with small employers on innovative programs that improve the quality and cost of care.  Things like helping employers get their employees to stop smoking, lose weight, control their chronic illnesses and many others.  They’re working with hospitals and physician practices to create changes in how care is delivered, and they’re seeing results.  The trouble is, insurers aren’t able to reflect the impact of this work in the cost they charge to an individual small employer.  Well, it’s trouble if you’re a customer, it’s not so bad if you’re the insurer.

It’s something you see large employers doing all the time.  And since they can self-insure, they get the economic benefit of these programs.  In my series on Real People, Real Reform, I’ve shared a very small taste of what major employers in America are doing.  It’s programs like the ones I’ve just mentioned, and many others, and many of them seem to work.

But when you talk to these large employers, like I did yesterday, there is a sense of disconnectedness over what’s happening in Washington.  Few can explain what the government is up to, exactly, and there is a sense of cynicism that Congress hasn’t spent its time in rooms like the one I was in yesterday.  Why aren’t they talking with large employers about the successes and failures they have had with health care?

It’s enough to make you think reform is more about politics than health care.  Or, to give reformers the benefit of the doubt, maybe they just don’t realize they are heading down a misguided path.  It’s as if the government decided in the 1980s that the best way to reform the telecommunications business would be to mandate lower prices for rotary phones, and wanted to set up a government manufacturer of these phones to create competition for them.  It might have worked, but mostly at locking in place a stagnant and deeply unimaginative status quo.

And this is the larger point.

What’s wrong with health care reform isn’t that people have bad intentions.  It’s the total failure of imagination.  As one reform proponent told me the other day, “we’ve been waiting 16 years to do this.”  Well, the world has changed an awful lot in the last 16 years, and one thing should be clear.  We should spend far less of our time trying to settle old political scores, and far more time listening to people who are actually doing real and meaningful things to improve health care.

There is no more difficult art to acquire than the art of observation. – Dr. William Osler

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  • "Medicine is learned by the bedside and not in the class room. Let not your conception of manifestations of disease come from work heard in the lecture room or read from the book: see and then research, compare and control. But see first."
    - Sir William Osler, MD
    The Father of Modern Medicine
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